France Ligue 2 – Lens v GFC Ajaccio Preview (17/12/16)

Lens preview

  • Defeat away against Strasbourg last weekend (1-3) ended a run of six unbeaten games. It was just their second loss of the season and was probably a slight shock to their system.
  • A victory here would move them up to joint second in the table. Les Sang et Or still drop too many points at home but have looked better of late, converting more draws into victories.
  • Squad condition is close to perfect with no suspensions and virtually no injuries. Nobody of significance misses out anyway.

GFC Ajaccio preview

  • The Corsican outfit have been highly inconsistent this season and their previous match against local city rivals Ajaccio proves the point. Out of nowhere, they delivered a 4-1 win which surprised everyone.
  • The Corsicans are usually pretty goal shy and struggle to hit the back of the net. In total, 7 of their 18 goals scored have come in two fixtures. They haven't really done a lot else.
  • Recent away form has been very poor, losing 3 out of 4 games and scoring just one goal in the process. This isn't too much of a surprise, for an island based team it’s never easy on the road.
  • Squad condition is good, although veteran midfielder David Ducourtioux is suspended. He is still surprisingly important to the team despite being 38 years old now.

Conclusion & betting analysis

  • I like Lens here and I think they can deliver victory. They have the better players and are quite simply the better team overall. This is their last match before the winter break and are sure to be well supported by a large crowd.
  • GFC had a good win last week but they don’t convince me away from home. Their results have been completely deserved and the lack of chances they create is worrying.
  • Lens don’t score enough goals for my liking and their finishing touch can desert them sometimes. This is why they draw too many games but I think they have enough about themselves to keep a clean sheet today. One goal might be enough to take victory.
  • The hosts are priced bigger than I expected too. I honestly thought we’d see Lens around the 1.85 mark, just to win. Instead, they can be grabbed on a -0.25 handicap around 1.80.
  • This is important because they are quite prone to draws. But I really see them delivering quite a complete performance today and they should dominate the contest in all aspects.

Prediction: 2-0

Recommended bet 1 unit: Lens -0.25 @ 1.81

Minimum odds acceptable: 1.65